William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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THE PRESIDENT HOLDS – AT 10:40 A.M. ET: Rasmussen has the president's approval rating today at 49%:
COMMENT: We note that this is the highest approval rating currently reported by any major poll. The lowest is Gallup, tied with Quinnipiac, at 37%. The RealClearPolitics average of presidential approval polls is 41.5%. Why, some readers ask, do we use Rasmussen, which sometimes appears an outlier? First, it is the only daily tracking poll, which means it's always up to date. Second, it was the most accurate major poll in predicting the last presidential election. Third, Trump always underpolls, so a poll that seems to put him "too high" may be just right. And fourth, Trump won the election when the average of polls also showed him behind. No one knows how accurate a poll is until we read the election-day results. But I am comfortable using Rasmussen, given the history. Rasmussen can also compare its result to where Obama was at this point in his presidency, which is unique. February 26, 2018 |
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